The latest IRS monthly statistics on pay settlements contain mixed messages. The median pay award stands at 1.2% in the three months to the end of November 2009, unchanged from the previous rolling quarter and comfortably above the median pay freeze we recorded in the summer.

But the jury is out on whether or not this signifies that pay awards will show some recovery in the new year. The range of pay awards is unchanged and more than one-third of all pay awards are still pay freezes. Employers foresee paying a median 2% settlement in 2010 as a whole, but the outcome of the January 2010 pay round is highly unpredictable.

Chancellor Alistair Darling’s announcement of a “super tax” on banks’ bonuses in last week’s Pre-Budget Report will certainly have an effect on the traditional January bonus round in the finance sector. With the proposals of the Walker Review on banks’ remuneration practices due to be implemented next year, 2010 will be a key year for finance sector pay and we will be watching it closely.

Also in this issue we bring you news from Occupational Pensions magazine, plus the usual pay reports, latest statistics, forecasts and salary surveys.

The design and layout of Pay and Benefits Bulletin is changing next year. Look out for the fresh new design in your first e-bulletin of 2010.

It just remains for me to say merry Christmas and a happy New Year!

Sarah Welfare
Editor
Pay and Benefits Bulletin

Pay reports recently added to the site:

Highways Agency: 2.75% pay award for most employees

Regional theatre staff: staged deal worth 2.5% over the year

Pay review update: 18 December 2009

The latest pay review update table contains pay awards at Sainsbury's, further education colleges in Wales, HM Revenue and Customs and more.

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Statistics and forecasts

The datafile contains the most recent inflation, earnings and labour market statistics, pay settlement data and inflation and earnings forecasts. Our panel of City and academic forecasters predicts that retail prices index (RPI) inflation will average -0.2% in the final quarter of this year, before climbing back into positive territory to average 2.4% in the first quarter of 2010. Average earnings growth is expected to end the year on 1.8%, before rising to 2.8% in the first three months of 2010, but dropping back to 1.9% in the second quarter.

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From the blog

Launched and run by the editorial team that produces XpertHR and the IRS e-journals, the Employment Intelligence blog is regularly updated with news, comment and links to the latest employment developments. Recent posts include:

• April 2010: maternity, paternity and adoption pay to go up, but sick pay to stay the same
• Pre-Budget Report 2009: public sector pay and pensions
• Pre-Budget Report 2009: the small print on bankers’ bonuses

Today's tip: take part in salary surveys

Reliable pay data is essential to any organisation seeking to manage its reward strategy effectively. By taking part in XpertHR Job Pricing salary surveys powered by CELRE, you can be confident that salaries in your organisation are accurately matched against those for similar roles elsewhere.

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