The IRS analysis of the Pre-Budget Report 2008 makes for particularly interesting reading for pay practitioners.

Alongside full details of Alistair Darling's package of tax cuts (and subsequent tax increases planned for April 2011), we have unearthed some intriguing information on the chancellor's own inflation expectations.

The government expects retail prices index (RPI) inflation - the key measure for pay setters - to plunge to -2.25% in 2009/10. The prospect of negative RPI raises concerns about the level of pay awards we can expect to see at the end of 2009 and into 2010.

Our own panel of expert economic commentators is less pessimistic, for now, predicting that RPI will average 2.2% over 2009 as a whole.

Elsewhere, we look at the findings of the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) 2008, the leading resource of official pay benchmarking data. It reveals that progress on eliminating pay inequality has stumbled, with the equal pay gap widening to 12.8% in 2008.

Other top stories in this issue:

• Case study: Total reward at Kent County Council
• Defined-benefit pensions: popular with staff, less so with employers

The TUC has recently called for the national minimum wage to increase to £6.10 per hour. Do you think this is enough? Or too much? Contribute to the debate by completing our short survey.

Michael Carty
Deputy Editor
Pay and Benefits Bulletin

Pay reports recently added to the site:

Home Office: 3.39% average earnings growth

TK Maxx: retail staff hourly rates increase by 3.5%

News International: 3.8% increase to basic rates

Pay review update: 5 December 2008

The latest pay review update table includes details of the latest annual pay award for UK police officers, alongside pay settlements at Budgens, the BBC, and many more.

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Statistics and forecasts

The datafile provides comprehensive and up-to-date inflation, earnings and labour market statistics pay settlement data and inflation and earnings forecasts. Our panel of City and academic forecasters is expecting headline inflation to fall sharply in the new year, dropping from 3.2% in the first quarter of 2009 to 1.3% by the fourth quarter. Average earnings growth is expected to remain stable, averaging 3.6% in 2008 and 3.4% in 2009.

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From the blog

Launched and run by the editorial team that produces XpertHR and the IRS e-journals, the Employment Intelligence blog is regularly updated with news, comment and links to the latest employment developments. Recent posts include:

• XpertHR's official pay benchmarking service updated
• Pre-Budget Report 2008 - the speech
• Equal pay gap widens to 12.8%
• What will negative RPI inflation mean for pay awards?
• Recession watch: The sky hasn't fallen in ... yet

Today's tip: check out XpertHR's good practice guides

XpertHR's new good practice guides go beyond the letter of the law to provide clear, simply written guidance on good practice in HR and people management. Browse our launch selection of guides, covering topics including attendance, absence, discipline, grievance, redundancy and work-life balance. Watch out for more guides over the coming weeks and months.

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