For many low-paid workers, the 3.8% increase in the national minimum wage from 1 October 2008 will have provided a welcome boost to their income. This figure has also become the benchmark pay award, according to the latest analysis of pay trends from IRS.

However, this level of increase in pay is unlikely to be sustained into the new year. Our article looks at the prospects for the labour market as we move into 2009, and the implications this will have on the level of pay rises that employers are willing, and able, to pass on to employees. Also in this issue, we look at the very latest forecasts of inflation, and how the prospect of falling inflation might bring the level of pay awards crashing down.

Other top stories in this issue include:

• UK employers are failing to tackle the hidden costs of employment
• Finance salaries rise by five-year high of 3.1%

The Office for National Statistics has published the most comprehensive survey of wage rates, the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (AHSE), 2008. XpertHR has pulled out the headline data, including findings on the widening gender pay gap.

Sheila Attwood
Editor,
Pay and Benefits Bulletin

Pay reports recently added to the site:

Offshore contractors: 4.3% increase agreed

Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform: merit awards from a 3.7% paybill increase

Felt roof industry: rates increased by 6%

Steeplejacks and lightning conductor fitters: 4% rise to minimum industry rates

Thorntons: 3.5% average pay increase for sales staff

Pay review update: 21 November 2008

The latest pay review update table contains pay settlements from the Ceramic Joint Council, the Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform, the Home Office, McAlpline & Co, Pret a Manger and many more.

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Statistics and forecasts

The datafile contains the most recent inflation, earnings and labour market statistics, pay settlement data and inflation and earnings forecasts. Our panel of City and academic forecasters is currently expecting headline inflation to fall from an average 4.5% in the final quarter of 2008, to 1.8% in the final quarter of 2009. Average earnings growth is expected to average 3.6% over both 2008 and 2009.

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From the blog

Launched and run by the editorial team that produces XpertHR and the IRS e-journals, the Employment Intelligence blog is regularly updated with news, comment and links to the latest employment developments. Recent posts include:

• Bank of England Inflation Report points to further interest rate cuts
• How big is your gender pay gap?
• Private sector pay 2007/08: Utilities workers top pay league table
• Recruitment levels fall, redundancies on the rise

Today's tip: XpertHR Job Pricing

XpertHR Job Pricing powered by CELRE provides access to top-quality market pay data for customers who have participated in and subscribe to CELRE salary surveys, enabling you to support your pay decisions and recommendations, and providing a cost-effective way to:

• set, monitor and manage your organisation’s reward strategy;
• review salary and benefit levels for individuals or groups of employees; and
• fill job vacancies by setting salaries at the right level for each post.

As a subscriber and participant you get:

• access to our online job pricing tool to run queries using a range of parameters including job function, responsibility level, location and size of organisation;
• the ability to match your organisation's data against market norms;
• the ability to download search results and charts into Excel, and
• a downloadable PDF version of the full survey, including trends commentary.

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